Those who count the votes

"Those who cast the votes decide nothing.
Those who count the votes decide everything."
-Joseph Stalin

Imagine walking up in 2006 to this nightmare headline: "Republicans Defy Polls to Make Historic Gains!" Such a story may be in the works, even as the Republican Congress and Bush both see their popularity fall into the mid to low 30s.

Everyone knows the story of November 2004: Kerry wins in the exit polls, but somehow Bush wins Iowa, New Mexico, Florida and Ohio in defiance of those polls. Many suspect, including myself, that the Diebold computers were the real problem. They also resulted in surprise wins in close Senate races in Alaska and Florida, handing the GOP 55 seats in the Senate.

Previously, Diebold computers had been suspected in the surprise victories of Republicans in the 2002 Georgia governor's race and senate race. The GAO recently issued a report detailing potential problems with such computers, showing that you wouldn't trust your bank account to one, let alone your democratic rights.

Now we have hard evidence of fraud. On November 8, 2005, Ohio voters faced 5 ballot issues. The Ohio newspapers posted polls showing that Issue 1 would pass with 53% of the vote. It passed with 54%, proving that the pollsters were dead on. So what's the controversy?

Issue 2 was leading with 59% to 33%, with only 9% undecided in the polls. It lost 36-63%. How do you lose 23% of the vote in 2 days?? Since when do all undecideds swing one way? Even in the relatively uncontroversial returns from Issue 1, the Nays got 90% of the undecideds.

Issue 3, on campaign contributions, was leading with 61% of the vote. Pretty safe to assume you are going to win, right? They lost with 33-66. It looks like someone just reversed the buttons to get those results, since 66-33 would be much closer to the polling. BTW, this is one of the possible scams that GAO presents in its reports on computer voting.

Issue 4 was only getting 31% of the polls, and got 30% of the vote. Non-controversial? Then how do you explain that the went from 45% to 69%, meaning that they of the 25% of undecideds, they lifted 24% points at the polls. Just like Issue 1, the undecideds all swung as a group one way.

Issue 5 is less clear cut, but the results are just as improbable.

Take the 2004 Exit Polls and the "Official Results", add in the fact that the Diebold CEO's promise to deliver Ohio for Bush, and you can see that Democracy is no longer a consideration in the State of Ohio, or anywhere else these monster machines are eating votes.

This isn't whining about 2004. This is worrying that America's Democracy may be vanishing without even a puff of smoke.

Here are the pre-election polls and the "official" returns:

ISSUE 1 ($2 Billion State Bond initiative)
PRE-POLLING: 53% Yes, 27% No, 20% Undecided
FINAL RESULT: 54% Yes, 45% No

ISSUE 2 (Allow easier absentee balloting)
PRE-POLLING: 59% Yes, 33% No, 9% Undecided
FINAL RESULT: 36% Yes, 63% No

ISSUE 3 (Revise campaign contribution limits)

PRE-POLLING: 61% Yes, 25% No, 14% Undecided
FINAL RESULT: 33% Yes, 66% No

ISSUE 4 (Independent Commission to draw Congressional Districts)
PRE-POLLING: 31% Yes, 45% No, 25% Undecided
FINAL RESULT: 30% Yes, 69% No

ISSUE 5 (Ind. Board instead of Sec. of State to oversee elections)
PRE-POLLING: 41% Yes, 43% No, 16% Undecided
FINAL RESULT: 29% Yes, 70% No


Ohio Referenda Defy Polls