The Obama Map

Yesterday, we looked at the McCain map for victory. It’s not that different from the Bush map of 2004 or even 2000, and relies on winning five battleground states, while holding the base states. New York, California, Illinois and most of the Northeast are off the table, while the West and South are safe and sound.

Clinton argued, and probably correctly, that she could win this 5 state battle, plus pick up West Virginia, Arkansas and maybe Kentucky. Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio seemed better bets for her. However, she gives up the West and has little room for growth in the Deep South.

Obama can also win this 5 state game, and looks slightly ahead today. However, three phenomena can crack this map wide open for him:

1) Republican depression: The GOP is in a huge funk now, losing 3 “safe” House seats this year. The primaries, even when competitive, had much lower turnout. Obama got more votes in Virginia that Clinton, McCain and Huckabee combined. The generic GOP is about 15 points behind in the polls, so Obama is underperforming and McCain overperforming at this point, and McCain is still behind.

2) Black voters: pollsters are having a hard time measuring voter turnout this year because Obama is bringing out under-30 voters and Blacks in record numbers. Obama will not only get more black votes than Kerry, probably around 95%, but could double the number of Blacks at the polls. This maybe blunted by their concentration in places that are not “swing states”, but it could, with some help, put some of the “Solid South” in play.

3) Bob Barr: former Rep. Bob Barr (R-GA) is performing surprisingly well in early polls. He has the potential to draw the “Huckabee voters” and the disgruntled GOP libertarians away from McCain, particularly in the Deep South. If current polls showing Barr getting 8% in Georgia and 6% in North Carolina hold, a surge of Black voters could put those two states, among others, into Obama’s column.

4) Hispanics: Yes, Hispanics loved Clinton, but they don’t seem to mind Obama. Even worse, the GOP’s immigration obsession cost them key Hispanic districts in Texas in 2006, especially Henry Bonilla. While McCain is more moderate on this, his stance ticks off conservatives, who could defect to Barr, leaving McCain in a delicate dance over Hispanic voters. If Obama were to pick Bill Richardson, that would motivate Hispanics even more. Obama is already slightly outperforming Kerry among Hispanics, so this could be a big opportunity for him in the Southwest, Florida and Virginia.

All these could combine for an Obama wave. Considering that only 4 of the last 26 elections have been close, and 2 were in 2000 and 2004, this remains the most likely case.

What states would Obama do well in to break this “Red State-Blue State” game?

1) Virginia (13 EVs): Obama kicked off his campaign in Northern Virginia and has been touring with Mark Warner, who is 23 points ahead Jim Gilmore to replace John Warner in the Senate. This would give Democrats the Governorship and both Senate seats in the Old Dominion. Even John Warner won’t endorse Gilmore, so Warner could be a major force for Obama. Picking Jim Webb as his VP would make an even bigger impact of swaying Virginia for the first time since 1964, and could blunt the Republican Appalachia base. The growth of the DC suburbs has really neutralized the Republican hold on this state.

2) Iowa (7): All that time in Iowa paid off for Obama with the opening shot of the primaries, and it seems to still have impressed Iowans, who have him in the lead by about 6-9 points. This is a Gore state that Kerry lost, and nice to have back in the Blue. Obama got more under-30 voters to come out in the Iowa caucuses than the over-65 voters, and this trend could help him nationwide.

3) New Mexico (5), Colorado (8), Nevada (5): Obama has broad appeal in the Mountain West, as he nearly swept those states in the primaries. They have long been GOP bastions, but Obama is doing well in Colorado, which is trending blue, and ahead in New Mexico. He was ahead in Nevada, but can compete there again with some improved national numbers. Montana (3) looks like an outside shot, and a big Obama wave could nab North Dakota (3), and possibly Alaska (3). The fact that Obama is only down by 11 in Arizona has to make McCain a bit nervous.

4) North Carolina (15): Rapidly growing North Carolina is the heart of the New South. It shares a lot of Virginia’s characteristics without the DC ‘burbs. A Barr surge and huge Black turnout could flip this state Blue. Early indicators are that Elizabeth Dole is in a dogfight for her Senate seat, which could encourage Obama to campaign even more there.

5) Indiana (11): Surprisingly, Obama is doing better in Indiana than in Michigan. This is probably because of the tight primary race and the fight over Michigan in the DNC, but it does show that Obama could sweep all 5 Ohio Valley states. A nice Democratic wave could pop Indiana over for the first time since 1964.

5) Texas (34): The Lone Star State, my original home, is the Heart of the GOP coalition today. An Obama win here would rip out the GOP heart and dance the Cotton-eyed Joe over it. Lose Texas, and McCain is in for a Michael Dukakis night. If the Republicans lose the 1st, 2nd and 3rd largest states, they are ceding 120 EVs.

Early polls put McCain ahead by about 10 points, but Hispanics, Blacks, and Bob Barr could make this competitive. Obama doesn’t even have to win here; just competing drains McCain’s precious resources as he has to pay big bucks in the DFW, Houston and San Antonio-Austin markets. With John Cornyn already only 4 points ahead in his Senate defense, Obama may be tempted down there for the double play, forcing the GOP into a battle they cannot afford to lose.

6) Mississippi (6): This state is a signal if Obama is going to get over 350 EVs. Mississippi did vote for Clinton in 1996, but is staunchly Republican. However, the MS-1st race shocked Republicans, and they are trailing in the Senate race to hold Trent Lott’s seat. A huge increase in Black voting, who make up 37% of the state, and a Bob Barr surge could put this on the table for Obama and get a Democrat elected to the Senate. Obama doesn’t need to win this, but if he does, the Republicans are going to be crying for months about it.

My Predictions:

While I think McCain could win this in a Bush-style nail-biter, the megatrends of the economy, Iraq, the GOP’s disastrous lack of appeal in 2006 and early 2008 Congressional elections, combined with amazing turnout in the Democratic Primaries have all the scents of an Obama blowout. His biggest problem right now is among Democratic voters, and Clinton seems keen on getting him elected now that her hopes are gone. Once he unites the party, he should pull significantly ahead in the polls.

Obama: 348-190
Democrats: +6 Senate: +20 House

Of course, this is five months away, but that’s where I see it for today.