The 2008 Election Map

With Clinton’s official withdrawal, the 2008 Presidential Election starts its next phase.

We start with a baseline of Obama slightly ahead of McCain nationally, at about 2-3 points. That’s a nice place for Obama to be in, but certainly not enough to get comfortable. I personally think that Obama will pull further ahead as the Clinton voters come home to him, but that remains to be seen over the next couple of weeks.

With a national election that close, it comes down to the states. Let’s start with McCain’s map for victory. Since he will be restricted to $85 million to what some project might be Obama’s $300 million, McCain will have to make every penny count. McCain does have the advantage only having to hold Bush’s 2004 states, but Kerry still got over 250 Electoral Votes.

Chuck Todd of MSNBC gives him these 5 states to begin with:

1) Florida (27 EVs): Juicy, fat Florida has been getting bigger and juicer. It now has 27 EVs compared with 25 in 2000. It was the key to Bush’s 2 wins and really came home for him in 2004. Other than Texas (34), this is McCain’s biggest must win state. If the AP calls Florida for Obama, McCain needs to pull out speech #2 and start rehearsing it. He does have a nice lead there right now of 8 points.

How McCain can win it: Pick Crist as VP. That could seal the deal, and Crist’s Anderson Cooper image helps McCain out among swing voters. However, those gay rumors make him a bit of risk.

How Obama can win it: Obama consolidating Jewish voters, picking up among Hispanics (15% of the state), a nice surge among Florida’s black population(15%) and Bob Barr picking off religious conservatives in Northern Florida.

2) Michigan (17): this is not a must-win for Obama, but pretty close. Michigan is always tight, but last went Republican in 1988. Obama should win there, but McCain is up by around 4 points now. This is largely because Obama is only getting 69% of Democrats, with 22% undecided (Rasmussen May 2008). Obama is not helped in either state by the DNC primary battle, but if he can consolidate his own party, he could pull comfortably ahead.

How McCain can win it: Exploiting Democratic divisions, and spending lots of time there. Some think picking former Governor George Romney’s son, Mitt Romney will help him there, but I tend to think that would be far offset by Huckabee voters in the South rejecting a Mormon on the ticket.

How Obama can win it: Uniting the party and spending time there. The state has a Democratic governor and 2 Democratic Senators, so he has a lot of party support there. Michigan has been heavily by the manufacturing downturn, so the economy plays in his favour. The state is 14% black, and a surge there can really help him. He should win this one, but a loss here could doom his candidacy.

3) Ohio (20): The other key to the 2004 election, Ohio wasn’t decided until nearly 24 hours after polls closed. This loss ended the Kerry dream, but a big state that close can’t be taken for granted. Obama has a tiny 1 point lead there now, so this is tight. However, 2006 was a big year for Democrats in Ohio, picking up a Senate seat, the Governorship and 3 House seats.

How McCain can win it: Another older state with lots of older white voters who should like McCain. His brand of Republicanism plays well there. The GOP was hurt badly in 2006, so that limits his base there, but he can play off his “maverick” image.

How Obama can win it: He could pick new Governor Strickland, who helped Clinton win the Ohio Primary. The state again has a lot of black voters (12%), and the economy is sluggish there, though not as bad as Michigan. Given his tiny lead there before consolidating his party, I give Obama a slight edge here.

4) Pennsylvania (21): As Joe Scarborough said, Republicans always think they can win Pennsylvania and New Jersey, and they never do. Both last went Republican in 1988, a landslide year for Papi Bush. Obama has a 6 point lead now, and the state has a Democratic Governor and a split Senate delegation, but Obama is close to Santorum-slayer Sen. Bob Casey.

How McCain can win it: This one is tough, but he can really hurt Obama by winning here. Not a lot of specific strategies as the state leans as strongly Democrat as Florida leans Republican.

How Obama can win it: Hold steady, win over Gov. Rendell (or even pick him as VP), and get the black vote out in Philly.

5) New Hampshire (4): New Hampshire loves the spotlight. With its “first in the nation primary” and being the only 2000 Bush state that swung to Kerry in 2004, politicians spend nearly 2 years in this little state begging for its support. By far the tiniest swing state, and the only one in New England, if Gore had but won it in 2000, he would have been President. However, given its size, it only really matters if both candidates are over 260 EVs.

How McCain can win it: He has won the NH GOP Primary twice now, in 2000 and 2008. The voters know and love him there. He holds a modest 1 point lead there now.

How Obama can win it: Since Kerry won it in 2004, he just has to build off there. It is a largely white state, but more liberal than West Virginia. The Democrats got big wins there in 2006 with the Governorship and the Senate seat. He may not need to campaign much there if his national numbers go up even slightly.

Next time: Obama’s Electoral Map