Barack Obama's Speech on Father's Day

The 1st Mrs. McCain

Some of McCain’s acquaintances are less forgiving, however. They portray the politician as a self-centred womaniser who effectively abandoned his crippled wife to ‘play the field’. They accuse him of finally settling on Cindy, a former rodeo beauty queen, for financial reasons.

John McCain's First Wife

Sunday Sermon

Emily Dickinson

LVII

SOME keep the Sabbath going to church;
I keep it staying at home,
With a bobolink for a chorister,
And an orchard for a dome.

Some keep the Sabbath in surplice; 5
I just wear my wings,
And instead of tolling the bell for church,
Our little sexton sings.

God preaches,—a noted clergyman,—
And the sermon is never long; 10
So instead of getting to heaven at last,
I ’m going all along!

The Obama Map

Yesterday, we looked at the McCain map for victory. It’s not that different from the Bush map of 2004 or even 2000, and relies on winning five battleground states, while holding the base states. New York, California, Illinois and most of the Northeast are off the table, while the West and South are safe and sound.

Clinton argued, and probably correctly, that she could win this 5 state battle, plus pick up West Virginia, Arkansas and maybe Kentucky. Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio seemed better bets for her. However, she gives up the West and has little room for growth in the Deep South.

Obama can also win this 5 state game, and looks slightly ahead today. However, three phenomena can crack this map wide open for him:

1) Republican depression: The GOP is in a huge funk now, losing 3 “safe” House seats this year. The primaries, even when competitive, had much lower turnout. Obama got more votes in Virginia that Clinton, McCain and Huckabee combined. The generic GOP is about 15 points behind in the polls, so Obama is underperforming and McCain overperforming at this point, and McCain is still behind.

2) Black voters: pollsters are having a hard time measuring voter turnout this year because Obama is bringing out under-30 voters and Blacks in record numbers. Obama will not only get more black votes than Kerry, probably around 95%, but could double the number of Blacks at the polls. This maybe blunted by their concentration in places that are not “swing states”, but it could, with some help, put some of the “Solid South” in play.

3) Bob Barr: former Rep. Bob Barr (R-GA) is performing surprisingly well in early polls. He has the potential to draw the “Huckabee voters” and the disgruntled GOP libertarians away from McCain, particularly in the Deep South. If current polls showing Barr getting 8% in Georgia and 6% in North Carolina hold, a surge of Black voters could put those two states, among others, into Obama’s column.

4) Hispanics: Yes, Hispanics loved Clinton, but they don’t seem to mind Obama. Even worse, the GOP’s immigration obsession cost them key Hispanic districts in Texas in 2006, especially Henry Bonilla. While McCain is more moderate on this, his stance ticks off conservatives, who could defect to Barr, leaving McCain in a delicate dance over Hispanic voters. If Obama were to pick Bill Richardson, that would motivate Hispanics even more. Obama is already slightly outperforming Kerry among Hispanics, so this could be a big opportunity for him in the Southwest, Florida and Virginia.

All these could combine for an Obama wave. Considering that only 4 of the last 26 elections have been close, and 2 were in 2000 and 2004, this remains the most likely case.

What states would Obama do well in to break this “Red State-Blue State” game?

1) Virginia (13 EVs): Obama kicked off his campaign in Northern Virginia and has been touring with Mark Warner, who is 23 points ahead Jim Gilmore to replace John Warner in the Senate. This would give Democrats the Governorship and both Senate seats in the Old Dominion. Even John Warner won’t endorse Gilmore, so Warner could be a major force for Obama. Picking Jim Webb as his VP would make an even bigger impact of swaying Virginia for the first time since 1964, and could blunt the Republican Appalachia base. The growth of the DC suburbs has really neutralized the Republican hold on this state.

2) Iowa (7): All that time in Iowa paid off for Obama with the opening shot of the primaries, and it seems to still have impressed Iowans, who have him in the lead by about 6-9 points. This is a Gore state that Kerry lost, and nice to have back in the Blue. Obama got more under-30 voters to come out in the Iowa caucuses than the over-65 voters, and this trend could help him nationwide.

3) New Mexico (5), Colorado (8), Nevada (5): Obama has broad appeal in the Mountain West, as he nearly swept those states in the primaries. They have long been GOP bastions, but Obama is doing well in Colorado, which is trending blue, and ahead in New Mexico. He was ahead in Nevada, but can compete there again with some improved national numbers. Montana (3) looks like an outside shot, and a big Obama wave could nab North Dakota (3), and possibly Alaska (3). The fact that Obama is only down by 11 in Arizona has to make McCain a bit nervous.

4) North Carolina (15): Rapidly growing North Carolina is the heart of the New South. It shares a lot of Virginia’s characteristics without the DC ‘burbs. A Barr surge and huge Black turnout could flip this state Blue. Early indicators are that Elizabeth Dole is in a dogfight for her Senate seat, which could encourage Obama to campaign even more there.

5) Indiana (11): Surprisingly, Obama is doing better in Indiana than in Michigan. This is probably because of the tight primary race and the fight over Michigan in the DNC, but it does show that Obama could sweep all 5 Ohio Valley states. A nice Democratic wave could pop Indiana over for the first time since 1964.

5) Texas (34): The Lone Star State, my original home, is the Heart of the GOP coalition today. An Obama win here would rip out the GOP heart and dance the Cotton-eyed Joe over it. Lose Texas, and McCain is in for a Michael Dukakis night. If the Republicans lose the 1st, 2nd and 3rd largest states, they are ceding 120 EVs.

Early polls put McCain ahead by about 10 points, but Hispanics, Blacks, and Bob Barr could make this competitive. Obama doesn’t even have to win here; just competing drains McCain’s precious resources as he has to pay big bucks in the DFW, Houston and San Antonio-Austin markets. With John Cornyn already only 4 points ahead in his Senate defense, Obama may be tempted down there for the double play, forcing the GOP into a battle they cannot afford to lose.

6) Mississippi (6): This state is a signal if Obama is going to get over 350 EVs. Mississippi did vote for Clinton in 1996, but is staunchly Republican. However, the MS-1st race shocked Republicans, and they are trailing in the Senate race to hold Trent Lott’s seat. A huge increase in Black voting, who make up 37% of the state, and a Bob Barr surge could put this on the table for Obama and get a Democrat elected to the Senate. Obama doesn’t need to win this, but if he does, the Republicans are going to be crying for months about it.

My Predictions:

While I think McCain could win this in a Bush-style nail-biter, the megatrends of the economy, Iraq, the GOP’s disastrous lack of appeal in 2006 and early 2008 Congressional elections, combined with amazing turnout in the Democratic Primaries have all the scents of an Obama blowout. His biggest problem right now is among Democratic voters, and Clinton seems keen on getting him elected now that her hopes are gone. Once he unites the party, he should pull significantly ahead in the polls.

Obama: 348-190
Democrats: +6 Senate: +20 House

Of course, this is five months away, but that’s where I see it for today.

The 2008 Election Map

With Clinton’s official withdrawal, the 2008 Presidential Election starts its next phase.

We start with a baseline of Obama slightly ahead of McCain nationally, at about 2-3 points. That’s a nice place for Obama to be in, but certainly not enough to get comfortable. I personally think that Obama will pull further ahead as the Clinton voters come home to him, but that remains to be seen over the next couple of weeks.

With a national election that close, it comes down to the states. Let’s start with McCain’s map for victory. Since he will be restricted to $85 million to what some project might be Obama’s $300 million, McCain will have to make every penny count. McCain does have the advantage only having to hold Bush’s 2004 states, but Kerry still got over 250 Electoral Votes.

Chuck Todd of MSNBC gives him these 5 states to begin with:

1) Florida (27 EVs): Juicy, fat Florida has been getting bigger and juicer. It now has 27 EVs compared with 25 in 2000. It was the key to Bush’s 2 wins and really came home for him in 2004. Other than Texas (34), this is McCain’s biggest must win state. If the AP calls Florida for Obama, McCain needs to pull out speech #2 and start rehearsing it. He does have a nice lead there right now of 8 points.

How McCain can win it: Pick Crist as VP. That could seal the deal, and Crist’s Anderson Cooper image helps McCain out among swing voters. However, those gay rumors make him a bit of risk.

How Obama can win it: Obama consolidating Jewish voters, picking up among Hispanics (15% of the state), a nice surge among Florida’s black population(15%) and Bob Barr picking off religious conservatives in Northern Florida.

2) Michigan (17): this is not a must-win for Obama, but pretty close. Michigan is always tight, but last went Republican in 1988. Obama should win there, but McCain is up by around 4 points now. This is largely because Obama is only getting 69% of Democrats, with 22% undecided (Rasmussen May 2008). Obama is not helped in either state by the DNC primary battle, but if he can consolidate his own party, he could pull comfortably ahead.

How McCain can win it: Exploiting Democratic divisions, and spending lots of time there. Some think picking former Governor George Romney’s son, Mitt Romney will help him there, but I tend to think that would be far offset by Huckabee voters in the South rejecting a Mormon on the ticket.

How Obama can win it: Uniting the party and spending time there. The state has a Democratic governor and 2 Democratic Senators, so he has a lot of party support there. Michigan has been heavily by the manufacturing downturn, so the economy plays in his favour. The state is 14% black, and a surge there can really help him. He should win this one, but a loss here could doom his candidacy.

3) Ohio (20): The other key to the 2004 election, Ohio wasn’t decided until nearly 24 hours after polls closed. This loss ended the Kerry dream, but a big state that close can’t be taken for granted. Obama has a tiny 1 point lead there now, so this is tight. However, 2006 was a big year for Democrats in Ohio, picking up a Senate seat, the Governorship and 3 House seats.

How McCain can win it: Another older state with lots of older white voters who should like McCain. His brand of Republicanism plays well there. The GOP was hurt badly in 2006, so that limits his base there, but he can play off his “maverick” image.

How Obama can win it: He could pick new Governor Strickland, who helped Clinton win the Ohio Primary. The state again has a lot of black voters (12%), and the economy is sluggish there, though not as bad as Michigan. Given his tiny lead there before consolidating his party, I give Obama a slight edge here.

4) Pennsylvania (21): As Joe Scarborough said, Republicans always think they can win Pennsylvania and New Jersey, and they never do. Both last went Republican in 1988, a landslide year for Papi Bush. Obama has a 6 point lead now, and the state has a Democratic Governor and a split Senate delegation, but Obama is close to Santorum-slayer Sen. Bob Casey.

How McCain can win it: This one is tough, but he can really hurt Obama by winning here. Not a lot of specific strategies as the state leans as strongly Democrat as Florida leans Republican.

How Obama can win it: Hold steady, win over Gov. Rendell (or even pick him as VP), and get the black vote out in Philly.

5) New Hampshire (4): New Hampshire loves the spotlight. With its “first in the nation primary” and being the only 2000 Bush state that swung to Kerry in 2004, politicians spend nearly 2 years in this little state begging for its support. By far the tiniest swing state, and the only one in New England, if Gore had but won it in 2000, he would have been President. However, given its size, it only really matters if both candidates are over 260 EVs.

How McCain can win it: He has won the NH GOP Primary twice now, in 2000 and 2008. The voters know and love him there. He holds a modest 1 point lead there now.

How Obama can win it: Since Kerry won it in 2004, he just has to build off there. It is a largely white state, but more liberal than West Virginia. The Democrats got big wins there in 2006 with the Governorship and the Senate seat. He may not need to campaign much there if his national numbers go up even slightly.

Next time: Obama’s Electoral Map

Will YouTube Kill the McCain Candidacy?

Can McCain win a debate with himself?

Hillary Clinton's Last Word on the Primaries

She's telling us, she's not going!

And we're gonna love her.

This brought tears to my eyes:

www.andrewsullivan.com:

This Moment

04 Jun 2008 12:28 am

A reader writes:

My grandfather, 86 years old and a veteran of WWII, just gave me a call. He was calling all of his grandchildren to let them know what an important night this was in the history of our country.

Grandpa drove a truck for over 50 years, and he told the story of how he drove with a team of drivers, 2 white (including him), and 4 black. When they stopped at the truck stops, the black drivers had to use seperate restrooms and showers, and had to eat in a small room in the back of the kitchen. Grandpa and his co-driver would eat in the back with the rest of the team, and while they didn't speak of it at the time, they knew it was wrong yet felt powerless to change it, and believed that it would never change.

Tonight, he told me, we have come full-circle. Many people, especially the younger generation who supported Obama, will never fully realize the historical import of what happened tonight. But he wanted his grandchildren to know this story that he had never told us, and it was the second time in my 33 years that I have heard my grandpa cry.

Yes We Did

Obama's amazing crusade continues to the general election!

Cool Hand Barack

Yesterday, Obama again proved why he should be the nominee and why Clinton shouldn't. He came to the Rules Committee table ready to negotiate, knowing exactly what he needed to take away and what he could afford to give. He told his supporters not to attend and not to engage the Clintonistas, trying to avoid an embarrassing spectacle for the news cameras.

She came to the table, full of huff and rhetoric. She had 13 allies out the 28 members of the Committee. She rounded up the rabble rousers to make a big show of it. Even her allies on the committee were visibly annoyed by her supporters.

Her offer for Michigan was an insult, not a negotiating point. Who really thinks he deserves NOTHING in MI? Her motions were quickly voted down with little support, even from her allies.

When it got past rhetoric to votes, the Florida compromise passed 27-0, taking it off the table. Obama had 15 votes to take a 64-64 split of delegates, but he opted for 69-59 (halved) to get 19 votes. Instead of a narrow win, he got 70% of the committee to agree to a compromise. This makes it extremely difficult for her to challenge on any logic, other than the emotional impact of her losing.

Ironically, she would have gotten a better deal out of Michigan if she hadn't rejected the Michigan Democratic Party's 69-59 split last month, giving her +10 delegates. Instead, she gets the same split, halved, and she loses her only rationale for staying in the race.

So, when you talk about Iraq, health care or Congressional relations, which candidate looks better prepared for Day 1?

You want drama and emotion, vote Clinton. You want long-term strategy and cool efficiency, vote Obama.