Summer Driving

Takes the Cake

At this point, if Obama baked McCain and Clinton birthday cakes:

McCain would lash out at Obama for making age an issue in the campaign.

Clinton would denounce Obama for mocking traditional woman's roles. She would also say that he was being sexist by trying to call her "fat".

If it were chocolate, she would say that he doesn't know how to make white cakes.

tears for fears -head over heels

Librarians are hot!

Race a factor in US presidential election - 19 May 08

Not sure how you expect to win over people who hate you just for the color of your skin, or why you should even try.

Clinton on Michigan/Florida

Clinton's newest position on "fairness" is zero Michigan delegates for Obama. After all, he didn't care; he wasn't even on the ballot. She certainly doesn't lack for chutzpah!

Of course, she thinks we live in a world without archives, so here is her Sept 2007 position on Michigan.

Clinton agrees to boycott Michigan and Florida

PORTSMOUTH, N.H., Sept. 1 — Three of the major Democratic presidential candidates on Saturday pledged not to campaign in Florida, Michigan and other states trying to leapfrog the 2008 primary calendar, a move that solidified the importance of the opening contests of Iowa and New Hampshire.

Hours after Senator Barack Obama of Illinois and former Senator John Edwards of North Carolina agreed to sign a loyalty pledge put forward by party officials in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York followed suit. The decision seemed to dash any hopes of Mrs. Clinton relying on a strong showing in Florida as a springboard to the nomination.

“We believe Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina play a unique and special role in the nominating process,” Patti Solis Doyle, the Clinton campaign manager, said in a statement.....

The three candidates were following the lead of Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico and Senators Christopher J. Dodd of Connecticut and Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware, who signed the pledge Friday. Their candidacies also rely upon finishing strong in the early states.

John McCain can't keep his story straight

It seems to me like he is just confused.

Bin Laden: Alive and Free Despite Bush's Promise

Isn't this the guy that Bush promised to catch, "Dead or Alive" about 7 years ago? It seems like giving up golf just wasn't enough to keep his word. Bin Laden looks pretty likely to last longer than Bush's presidency.

Here's a hint for Bush:

Bin Laden was never in Iraq!

Bin Laden Thumbs Nose at US and Israel

How Scary is Obama?

How scary is Obama?

So scary that Bush's SEC Chairs are backing him over Clinton and McCain!

SEC Chairs Back Barack

California, Look What You've Done!

Blame it on the gays!

John Edwards: YES WE CAN!

John Edwards sees the light.

Hill-Billy Country

Some have speculated that Clinton is doing so well in West Virginia because her campaign is spreading the rumor that Barak Obama fathered two black children.

Are you younger than McCain?

Lots of things are!

Alaska is Younger than McCain!

Republican Family Values

Meet Congressman Vito Fossella (R-NY). He is a family man with a wife and 3 kids living on Staten Island. He is the only Republican in Congress from New York City today.

He has a strong record on family values, consistently voting for antigay initiatives. His family values are so strong that he has shunned his gay sister and refuses to see her or go to family events if she is there.

His pleasant life came crashing down last month when he was arrested for a DWI in Alexandria, Virginia. He claimed he had to visit his sick daughter. Well, it turns out that his sick daughter was Laura Fay, a former Air Force Congressional liaison with whom Fossella has been having an affair since 2003. In fact, it turns out he is the father of her 3 year old daughter.

Now he is under investigation for a 2003 trip to Paris, France, paid for by public funds. Originally billed as a official business, it turns out that it was more of a romantic tryst with Ms. Fay.

So, our good, God-fearing Republican Congressman is now accused of DWI, adultery, fathering a bastard child, embezzlement, and general lying and hypocrisy. Good thing he's not a really bad person, like his lesbian sister and her girlfriend!

Vito the Embezzler?

MoveOn, Clinton, MoveOn

Losing teams always make mistakes, but so do winning teams. The key is what mistake was the gamebreaker. Many have pointed to Clinton's 2002 vote to invade Iraq, but Kerry got the nomination (even though it handicapped him in the fall) just 2 years later. Voters are more forgiving since many of them initially supported the war. You can write that off as "Bush screwed it up."

What did Clinton in was her vote in fall 2007 for the Kyl-Lieberman amendment to authorize Bush to invade Iran. It completely undercut her argument that "Bush tricked her" in 2002. Fool me once, well, you can't fool me again, as Bush would say.

Her vote in 2007 was based on the same political calculation as in 2002: don't look weak on defense. She completely ignored the Democratic base who are angry with the Democrats for not doing enough to end the Iraqi war, but she figured they would have no choice but to vote for her.

In April, she criticized MoveOn for financing Obama, but it was her Iran vote that decided them for Obama. Once she betrayed their core issue: ending the war in Iraq, she lost them forever. They found a messenger in Obama, and provided him with an endless supply of money and volunteers. He has been winning college students and young adults overwhelmingly, and they are the small donors fueling his money machine. They were behind him when the black community was solidly behind Clinton.

Without the Iran vote, MoveOn would have at best been a non-factor. Without MoveOn, Obama would have never won Iowa. Without Iowa, Obama would have been another Mosley-Braun, while Clinton would have wrapped up the nomination on Super Tuesday, just as she thought God intended.

US govt treats American veterans like dead dogs

Is this what you call supporting the troops? US war dead treated to
the same dignity as a euthanized mutt?

How can anyone pretend that Bush cares about veterans when he doesn't
even respect their ultimate sacrifice for our country? Why isn't
McCain speaking out against this, given his affinity for veterans?

I guess when you elect someone who was more interested in furthering
his political career than fulfilling his military obligations, you
should expect such cavalier attitude towards the young men and women
he sends to fight and die for his inept wars.

Pet Cemetery

McCain gets only 3/4 of GOP votes

Republican presumptive nominee continues to lose 1/4 of the Republican vote in the primaries, despite having no opposition remaining in his inevitable primary campaign.

After 23% of PA Republicans turned out to vote for "Anyone but McCain", the trend continued in Indiana and North Carolina.

In Indiana, McCain picked up 78% of the vote, 5% for Ron Paul, and the dead candidacies of Romney and Huckabee split the remaining 17%.

In North Carolina, McCain only got 74%, with 12% going again to Huckabee, 7% to Ron Paul, and 4% to "Uncommitted".

While many will point out that these voters may not go for Obama in the Fall, they show a continued weakness of McCain among his own base. This may depress already moribund Republican turnout. With Bob Barr running on the Libertarian ticket, these disgruntled conservatives will have a viable place to express their discontent. Worse for other Republicans running for office, they may just not show up in Novemember.
McCain bleeding Red voters

Texas: the New Swing State

Texas Swing

According to the latest Rasmussen Poll (and this isn't the first time), Texas is in play in both the White House and Senate races.

5/1. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)

Cornyn (R) 47
Noriega (D) 43

Incumbent John "Screwing Box Turtles" Cornyn has a tiny 4 point lead over Noriega, with several months to go. This is a lot closer than Jim Webb's race against George Allen. When they listed the 11 most vulnerable Republican seats, this one has never been mentioned, meaning the Republicans are really in trouble if they lost the Texas seat once held by Phil Gramm and John Tower.

On the White House side, McCain hold narrow leads over Obama and Clinton for Texas' 34 EVs. Without Texas, McCain has no large state anchor for his campaign. If he is forced to compete in Texas, it will cost him millions to pay for ads in Houston, Dallas-Ft. Worth and Austin-San Antonio, three of the top 10 biggest markets in the US. If he loses Texas, and the Dems hold NY, CA, and IL without trouble, there goes 109 EVs from just 4 states. I don't see a plausible scenario where McCain loses Texas and wins the White House, as it is the only large state in the GOP fold today.

In the presidential, Democrats will be hugely competitive:

McCain (R) 48
Obama (D) 43

McCain (R) 49
Clinton (D) 43

Omens at the Kentucky Derby

Sen. Hillary Clinton during a trip to Louisville this week had said she
was going to bet on Eight Belles to win, place, and show.
Eight Belles went down on the track after her second-place finish,
broke two ankles, and was euthanized.

The horse Sen. Barack Obama picked to show -- Big Brown --
won the Derby.

What if McCain Does Win?

What if McCain does pull it off? What kind of presidency does he get?

Well, he starts off 2 years older than Reagan was in 1981. He
celebrates his 73rd birthday in July 2009. That means when he runs
for re-election, he has hit the average male life expectancy of 76
years old.

Even if McCain pulls off a win, his best case scenario with Congress
is stemming Republican losses. Democrats are predicted to pick up 6
Senate seats and another dozen House seats. No one predicts the GOP
has any hope of gaining seats, let alone retaking Congress. Given
that midterms usually go against the President, McCain is looking at 4
years of Pelosi-Reid running a solidly Democratic Congress.

McCain is also unpopular with conservatives, and has never been
considered for leadership in the Senate. Republicans will naturally
lean towards their president in the minority status, but most Senators
know him well and many have mixed to negative feelings towards him.
If Republicans have only 43 Senate seats, as predicted, and a dozen or
so Republicans regularly vote against him, McCain will find himself
with little support on Capitol Hill.

Economists predict pathetically slow growth for the US through 2009,
as low as less than 1%. Gas prices are going to skyrocket, some even
predicting $7/gallon. With high inflation and rising unemployment,
McCain faces Stagflation not seen since the Carter years.

Given the rising deficits that our haunting the dollar and causing
rapid inflation of import prices (namely, oil!), McCain's tax cuts are
highly unlikely to pass the Democratic Congress. He may be able to
cut some "earmarks", but without a line-item veto, he will pretty much
have to accept Congress's budget priorities just as George H.W. Bush did.

His next biggest problem will be Iraq, where support for the war will
plummet even further unless the 5 year trend line reverses itself.
Democrats will be even more emboldened to push for removing US troops,
and McCain's 100 year pledge will not sit well.

War with Iran is almost out of the question, as Americans are tired
two unfinished, interminal wars in the Middle East already. It would
take a draft and major tax hikes to fund such an effort, dooming it
from the start and threatening to put Republicans in near extinction
in the 2010 election.

This puts McCain in the position of one of the weakest presidents in
recent history. He starts off with a weak economy, rising inflation,
and a highly unpopular war, both blamed on his own party. He has
little power in Congress. His age makes people wonder how the strains
of office, which dramatically aged younger men like Clinton and Bush.
He would face re-election with a nation even more uneasy with
Republicans, as the President's party always gets the blame no matter
who controls Congress.

Republicans should ask themselves, "Is this the future we want for our
party?"