Texas: the New Swing State

Texas Swing

According to the latest Rasmussen Poll (and this isn't the first time), Texas is in play in both the White House and Senate races.

5/1. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)

Cornyn (R) 47
Noriega (D) 43

Incumbent John "Screwing Box Turtles" Cornyn has a tiny 4 point lead over Noriega, with several months to go. This is a lot closer than Jim Webb's race against George Allen. When they listed the 11 most vulnerable Republican seats, this one has never been mentioned, meaning the Republicans are really in trouble if they lost the Texas seat once held by Phil Gramm and John Tower.

On the White House side, McCain hold narrow leads over Obama and Clinton for Texas' 34 EVs. Without Texas, McCain has no large state anchor for his campaign. If he is forced to compete in Texas, it will cost him millions to pay for ads in Houston, Dallas-Ft. Worth and Austin-San Antonio, three of the top 10 biggest markets in the US. If he loses Texas, and the Dems hold NY, CA, and IL without trouble, there goes 109 EVs from just 4 states. I don't see a plausible scenario where McCain loses Texas and wins the White House, as it is the only large state in the GOP fold today.

In the presidential, Democrats will be hugely competitive:

McCain (R) 48
Obama (D) 43

McCain (R) 49
Clinton (D) 43